Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.446592 0.515400 0.589842 0.676181 0.773373 0.879208 1.002977
2025-06-01 0.353961 0.445749 0.552560 0.685338 0.845214 1.030721 1.261404
2025-06-08 0.280972 0.384780 0.514236 0.685907 0.905730 1.175756 1.530256
2025-06-15 0.236792 0.351438 0.504111 0.719130 1.010408 1.387054 1.905909
2025-06-22 0.183740 0.296660 0.457607 0.698584 1.043935 1.513642 2.191656
2025-06-29 0.145721 0.255766 0.423409 0.689647 1.092087 1.665856 2.530502
2025-07-06 0.114616 0.218924 0.388767 0.674590 1.129508 1.807925 2.872601
2025-07-13 0.096996 0.200427 0.379463 0.696957 1.226034 2.046852 3.381243
2025-07-20 0.079386 0.177925 0.359480 0.698847 1.290713 2.245168 3.850764
2025-07-27 0.067130 0.162648 0.349357 0.715927 1.382595 2.496203 4.428142
2025-08-03 0.057109 0.149418 0.340557 0.733957 1.478422 2.763754 5.058438
2025-08-10 0.044850 0.127918 0.311264 0.708581 1.493375 2.896938 5.479802
2025-08-17 0.033979 0.106678 0.278781 0.673070 1.488232 3.001198 5.874804
2025-08-24 0.027398 0.094080 0.262442 0.668071 1.541533 3.216677 6.487564
2025-08-31 0.021813 0.082185 0.244965 0.657494 1.582428 3.414255 7.088770
2025-09-07 0.018787 0.076789 0.242325 0.680336 1.696426 3.763563 8.003778
2025-09-14 0.014415 0.065195 0.220568 0.653674 1.700043 3.897439 8.524589
2025-09-21 0.011375 0.056762 0.205181 0.639671 1.729755 4.086783 9.170320
2025-09-28 0.008854 0.048957 0.189353 0.621228 1.746373 4.250544 9.779993
2025-10-05 0.007604 0.045749 0.186868 0.638479 1.850593 4.610094 10.815951
2025-10-12 0.006218 0.041136 0.178465 0.637380 1.909478 4.876908 11.682350
2025-10-19 0.005301 0.038255 0.175203 0.650816 2.007224 5.239446 12.779565
2025-10-26 0.004541 0.035727 0.172498 0.665507 2.110343 5.623768 13.953183